Nigeria

Nigeria's political economy is structured around the competition between the federal executive, the National Assembly, the thirty-six state governors, and the informal power networks that cross-cut formal institutions. The Tinubu administration's economic reform program — fuel subsidy removal, naira unification, CBN policy normalization — represents the most significant structural policy shift since the 1986 structural adjustment program. The political sustainability of these reforms through the 2027 federal election cycle is the central governance question for institutional decision-makers.

Nigeria's economy is undergoing structural adjustment at a scale not seen in decades. Naira unification has compressed import purchasing power significantly; fuel subsidy removal has driven energy price inflation that has absorbed consumer spending across income segments. The CBN's rate normalization has attracted portfolio inflows to Nigerian sovereign instruments while compressing credit availability for the domestic private sector. The recovery trajectory depends heavily on non-oil revenue performance and FX stability.

Nigeria's regulatory environment is in transition across multiple sectors simultaneously. The SEC's capital market reforms, the CBN's fintech licensing framework, the FCCPC's competition enforcement posture, and the NCC's emerging AI regulation agenda are all active regulatory frontiers with institutional implications. The Nigeria Data Protection Act 2023 and NDPC regulatory framework represent the most significant data governance development since the cybercrime act.

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and FMDQ Securities Exchange are the primary capital market venues. NGX recapitalization of the banking sector — requiring minimum capital bases of ₦200bn for international banks by March 2026 — is the dominant capital markets event of the current cycle. FMDQ's fixed income and derivatives markets are expanding significantly with CBN support. Diaspora bond and infrastructure bond development remains a policy priority without a defined execution framework.